Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 108.794718 124.414707 141.987702 163.319071 188.640816 217.897225 254.486152
2026-01-11 89.658194 109.913480 134.724852 167.710979 210.954938 266.478687 344.416520
2026-01-18 77.046037 99.321004 128.361403 169.708004 228.247824 310.026218 436.343860
2026-01-25 67.625435 90.664043 122.213433 169.680802 241.284668 348.701594 529.038479
2026-02-01 59.521930 82.349350 114.877324 166.090029 247.559079 377.464101 612.126625
2026-02-08 53.036900 75.358641 108.263676 162.146660 251.964355 403.228893 695.462003
2026-02-15 47.842101 69.580705 102.597757 158.592164 255.957975 428.387607 783.214426
2026-02-22 46.242694 69.020917 104.793147 167.917853 283.147070 499.572354 979.888322
2026-03-01 43.357379 66.090792 102.781101 169.687159 296.898223 548.122700 1143.703334
2026-03-08 40.928703 63.626317 101.209809 171.912765 311.708884 601.640014 1335.729974
2026-03-15 38.370634 60.686818 98.483507 171.587676 321.321077 646.083912 1520.480014
2026-03-22 37.578516 60.647053 100.772460 180.985674 352.412237 745.171165 1887.193039
2026-03-29 36.397559 59.889307 101.812770 188.358822 381.241662 848.158667 2317.748766
2026-04-05 35.069072 58.746120 102.020683 194.096368 407.661072 952.935069 2809.683159
2026-04-12 33.462857 56.945207 100.778450 196.590587 426.976522 1044.660283 3309.535557
2026-04-19 31.726551 54.748026 98.533738 196.581735 440.167607 1123.252179 3808.557071
2026-04-26 29.704367 51.845603 94.609447 192.299675 441.696689 1168.141748 4200.766455
2026-05-03 27.827019 49.079632 90.712734 187.596610 441.313975 1207.367619 4596.079340
2026-05-10 26.164050 46.608001 87.201820 183.360230 441.457138 1248.594996 5031.225543
2026-05-17 26.018386 47.115384 89.953871 194.482823 486.945380 1458.231432 6495.706271
2026-05-24 25.092707 45.981605 89.092571 196.595675 506.778530 1584.633929 7631.752269
2026-05-31 24.273404 45.002911 88.477382 199.254583 528.918401 1728.566179 9035.184072
2026-06-07 23.278116 43.588458 86.771341 198.866122 541.506938 1839.952782 10355.466151